Major considerations

The first Jurassic Park film holds a special place in my heart, not just because it marks a critical juncture in my life as the point at which I transitioned from loving to being terrified of dinosaurs, but also because it’s just a good film that still holds up today.

If you haven’t seen it, you should correct that immediately. If you have but didn’t like it, well I’m sorry but frankly you’re not welcome at this decidedly pro-JP publication.

Arguably the most famous scene in the film takes place before it all kicks off, when all the main characters are gathered for lunch, discussing the feasibility of opening Dr. Hammond’s (Richard Attenborough) grand project to the world.

Dr. Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum), always the sceptic, angrily asks,

Don't you see the danger, John, inherent in what you're doing here? Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn't stop to think if they should.

As reported by SportsBusiness.com, Soccer Holdings is launching a 6-12 month evaluation of the feasibility of Louisville City joining the MLS.

After years of downplaying the prospect of expansion out of the USL, Brad Estes thinks it’s possible that we could potentially be ready to take that step in the near future, stating that the club has reached a point of business stability. This is largely down to the addition of the academy and club infrastructure in the training ground and crucially, Lynn Family Stadium.

At present, it is important to clarify that the club does not currently have plans to submit a bid to join the MLS. This is just a feeler, an investigative period which might not produce anything substantial. Even if we come out of this with new investors and an expansion bid ready to hand in, convincing the MLS hierarchy that a smaller-sized media market fits with their business model is an entirely separate matter, as pointed out by Taylor Sorrels. But this news also marks the official start of an important conversation that needs to be had amongst fans.

There are a million moving pieces to this, and I’m not even going to touch the state and local impacts of this or what it would mean for the city and its communities, which is arguably most important of all. This story just dropped yesterday and I’m still trying to wrap my head around it all, so I’ll focus on a few of the biggest things that this could change for us as a club and as fans.

A good starting point is Lance McGarvey’s tweet, which I think sums it up best:

I imagine 99.9% of us feel this way too. If you’re the type of person to read a blog about a second division American soccer team, let’s face it: you’re probably in this thing for the long haul. Knowing this, would you be willing to gamble success for top-flight status? It’s a fair question to ask, and I think either answer is a reasonable one.

Louisville City is not the richest club in the USL, but it is up there. It is also unquestionably the league’s most successful. We’re a big fish in a small pond, but making the jump to the MLS would be like being thrown into the ocean. There’d be a necessary period of adjustment, but the hope is that a new-league slump wouldn’t last forever.

But what might it mean for a club whose fanbase has never experienced even a single without reaching the playoffs, let alone a losing record or the grind of mid-table mediocrity? What could that look like for us? It’s early days and things might work out for them still, but all you need to do is head north on I-71 to see.

It’s also worth considering what this could mean for supporters financially. Today, your season ticket in the Estopinal or Waterfront End costs $280.50. In 2020, the MLS league average for supporters seating was $400, with D.C. United, Atlanta and SKC all charging figures well into the five-hundreds. This is not to say a ticket price hike would be imminent (Real Salt Lake and FCC charge prices much closer to our own), but it wouldn’t be out of the question. On top of this, club has typically struggled to draw support from some of the city’s most-disadvantaged residents, a problem (which to its credit) it has been trying to fix as of late. I do worry that a potential rise in fans' matchday expenses could undercut a lot of this progress.

Personnel changes would be inevitable. You can’t compete in the MLS without an MLS roster. While it would be sad to see some of our club veterans take a step back or depart City to make room for incoming talent, changeover in players and coaching staff is something we’re used to as a club. What would be new is a change in ownership.

In the interview with Bob Williams, Estes noted that we’d probably need something on the order of $350m to cover expansion fees and associated costs, and an investor with a net worth of $1 billion. That is not John Neace money. The risk of bringing in that kind of capital is that it brings with it a new figure to call the shots of day-to-day operations. Changing ownership is always a gamble for fans, and I have to say I’m pretty happy with our current ones. Not only do they build nice things for the club, but generally run things well which allows me to mostly just write about what’s happening on the pitch and not behind the scenes shenanigans. I don’t like spending my time thinking about backroom staff or ownership, and would much prefer to just focus about the football and cultural aspects of being a supporter. I think most of us probably feel the same way.

This is one possible future. Happily, another one exists— one in which we have our away days against old rivals back, see incredible (men's) talent playing at LFS and, after an initial adjustment period, establish ourselves as regular competitors for this country’s top-flight title, or more. It will be the job of those involved in the evaluation process will be to figure out if this is something we can do. It will be the job of us as fans, to determine whether or not this is something we should do, at least at this point in time.

This is not to say I’m against MLS expansion. Growth and ambition have also been part of who we are since the beginning. In my own view, I want my team to play at the highest level possible. I want us to win everything there is to win. That might sound a little ridiculous to imagine now, but a couple years and a few hundred-million dollars can make light work of winning trophies even under a salary-cap model, if spent wisely. I also want to continue to be proud of my club as one that has values and lives up to them, and one that feels like a family. It’s a delicate balance, but not an impossible one. The next 6-12 months+ are going to be a long, complex series of conversations amongst fans about club culture— both what it is and how important it is to us collectively.

Something’s been built here that matters to people in a way that transcends what happens on the pitch. A football team (and a damn good one at that) but more importantly, a football club that to borrow the words of Dr. Hammond, “is not built to cater only for the super-rich, but for everyone to enjoy.” I don’t think we realize how rare and fragile a thing that is today.

With nearly every action they’ve taken since the announcement of the club in 2014 as evidence, at this point I place a lot of trust in Soccer Holdings to make the correct call after considering the hard financial facts and the best interests of the fans and the community. Not only is this the right way to handle things— it’s their entire brand. If sometime between September and early next year Estes and Co. think we can get the funding from a reasonable person, convince the MLS, and do it the right way— let’s f*cking do this thing. The potential upsides are, erhm, clear and obvious. Glory awaits.

Let’s just make sure we don’t change our DNA in doing so.